As we look to resume small, in-person gatherings at Shadow Rock, church leadership is watching two sets of numbers: The Rt Factor and the Positivity Rate. A longer letter explaining these terms, our criteria, and links to sources can be found here. These numbers are updated by health officials each Thursday, so each week we are gathering that data and updating the table below.

We are being as precise and as simple as possible to balance our desire to serve our community and prioritize everyone’s safety. We realize this is a lot of technical information and want you to understand everything we are taking into consideration to make these decisions.

TWO FACTORS FOR DETERMINING IN-PERSON GATHERING DECISION

#1 Rt Factor below 1
Shadow Rock will use the sources below to track the infection rate numbers.
Shadow Rock will not resume in-person gatherings or preschool classes if the Rt number is 1 or above.
Shadow Rock will end in-person gatherings and preschool classes if the Rt number is 1 or above.
Resumption of in-person gatherings will happen only after a two week consistent infection rate of .9 or less. All three Rt source numbers are considered and will not be averaged. More weight will be given to the Maricopa County number.

FLOW CHART FOR Rt FACTOR

#2 Positivity Rate below 5%
Shadow Rock will use the sources below to track the positivity numbers.
Shadow Rock will not resume in-person gatherings or preschool classes if the positivity rate is 5% or above.
Shadow Rock will end in-person gatherings and preschool classes if the positivity rate is 4.995% or above.
Shadow Rock will conduct “parking lot” services via FM radio if the positivity rate is between 5% and 6.995%.
Resumption of in person gatherings will happen only after a two week consistent positivity rate of 4.995% or less. All three source testing positivity numbers are considered and are not averaged. More weight will be given to the Maricopa County number.

FLOW CHART FOR TESTING POSITIVITY PERCENTAGE

The numbers from the various health and statistical experts help inform our decisions regarding how safe it is to resume in-person gatherings. Both the Rt and testing positivity factors must be below the thresholds for us to proceed with in-person meetings. We must draw lines and resist crossing the boundaries regardless how close the numbers may be. A single tenth of a point can make a very big difference.